Consumption 🛒
GDP grows, UPI hits new highs, and An expensive typo.
☀️ Morning, Monday is here!
And March as well. So far, this has been a brutal year for stocks in India — the Nifty is now down almost 7% YTD, Sensex in tow.
For many who joined the game post COVID, this may be the first prolonged correction. If you’re looking for frameworks to align yourself, here’s one.
💡 Spotlight: India’s digital payments boom continues unabated. UPI hit its highest-ever monthly record in January. Transactions soared past 1,699 crore, with total payment values topping ₹23.4 lakh crore.
1 Big thing: India’s personal spend hits $2.1 trillion 🛒
Despite a broad economic gloom hitting the markets, India’s private consumption reached a record high in 2024, surpassing $2.1 trillion—nearly doubling over the past decade.
That rapid spending growth puts India on track to become the world’s third-largest consumer market by 2026, trailing only the U.S. and China.
What’s driving it: e-commerce and digital payments have made spending seamless, while rising incomes, a young population, and urban expansion continue to fuel demand.
Over the last decade, consumer preferences have shifted toward higher-quality brands, experience-driven retail, and personalized products and services—further catalyzing growth
Key numbers to put on your radar:
India’s organized retail market is expanding at a 10% CAGR, projected to reach $230 billion by 2030.
Credit card adoption is set to triple from 102 million in 2024 to 296 million by 2030.
The number of Indians earning $10,000 annually is expected to grow from 60 million to 165 million by 2030.
Big Picture: many investors see India’s economy as fundamentally driven by consumer spending. With robust expansion in consumption, earnings growth could accelerate, potentially lifting the stock market out of its current rut.
And while we’re on the topic of growth, ☝️
India’s Q3 (Oct to Dec) GDP grew 6.2%, a notch below expectations but better than last quarter.
Consumer and government spending kept the economy moving, but it was clear that growth isn’t as fast as it was last year. On a yearly basis, GDP has slowed from nearly 8.6% YoY growth.
On the positive side though, rural demand is seen reviving. Agriculture growth, at 4.6% YoY, was better than last year. Sectors like construction are holding steady. And the government’s heavy spending on infrastructure is also helping hold the line.
2. Skype’s good run ends 📞
Microsoft is finally shutting down Skype on May 5, after two decades of video calls that never connected and endless “Can you hear me?” echoes into the void.
A flashback to simpler times: Skype, an internet 1.0 OG, was launched in 2003 before FaceTime, WhatsApp, and Zoom were even a thought. The big-dawg use case came from corporate communications.
Microsoft saw potential and snapped it up for $8.5 billion in 2011, making it its largest acquisition at the time. But instead of a revival, Skype had its Internet Explorer moment—glitchy, sluggish, and quickly outclassed by newer, nimbler competitors like Zoom.
By the numbers: Skype peaked at 300 million users in 2016, but by 2023, that figure had plunged to just 36 million. While the rest of the video call industry boomed during the pandemic, Skype fumbled the ball big time. Satya had had enough.
The final blow? Microsoft’s own Teams, which launched in 2017 as a Slack-style communication tool, and quickly grew to 320 million monthly active users.
3. India’s fuel network gets a massive upgrade ⛽
India’s oil refineries—Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum, are building the world’s longest liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pipeline, set to be fully operational by June.
The project will meet 25% of India’s LPG demand, reducing logistics costs and also improving supply efficiency.
Why it matters: the 2,800-km pipeline will transport LPG directly from refineries to bottling plants, cutting transportation costs and reducing reliance on road tankers.
This shift is expected to lower accident risks linked to fuel transport.
Mega theme: India’s LPG demand has surged 80% over the past decade, driven by government incentives to switch households from biomass to cleaner fuel. The pipeline rollout is a key step in modernizing India’s fuel supply chain.
4. Stocks that kept us interested 🚀
1. GE Power India, the Indian subsidiary of GE Vernova, secured a ₹274 crore contract from GREENKO for a major hydro power project in Karnataka.
This additional order covers engineering and manufacturing work, complementing its ₹863 crore contract from three years ago for electro-mechanical package installation.
Worth noting: last week, GE Power also bagged a ₹40 crore order from NTPC and MP Power Generating Co. for turbines and boilers.
For context, the company designs and manufactures turbines, boilers, generators, and other critical infrastructure for power generation across thermal, hydro, and renewable energy sectors.
Meanwhile, stock continues to remain under pressure.
2. Transrail lighting, a company that supplies electrical transmission and distribution equipment, disclosed new orders worth well over 2,700 crores in a new exchange filing.
What makes the news significant is that the company has disclosed nearly ₹7,400 crore in year-to-date new orders, a 90% jump from last year. The company’s market cap is barely at ₹6,900 crores.
For context, Transrail has a presence in 58 countries and primarily manufactures transformers, power lines, poles, power distribution units, and more.
5. Story in data — Global success💰
Indian-American households have the highest median household income in the U.S., well over $145K a year, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
This wage gap could be driven by high educational attainment, a strong presence in STEM and high-paying industries, as well as residential concentration in major economic hubs like SF, NY, or even Texas.
Higher income is gradually translating into economic influence as well as increasing social and political influence—a key factor expected to be at the center of emerging U.S. India relations in the new Trump era.
What else are we snackin’ 🍿
🚨 Crypto crash: Bitcoin plunged 25% from its peak it hit just six weeks ago, dropping below $80,000 as the crypto market slid on tariff concerns.
🏆 Top spot: Ola Electric sold 25,000 electric 2-wheelers in February 2025, commanding a 28%+ market share. The company retained its No.1 position in the segment.
🏗️ Fintech push: National Payments Corporation of India will set up a 5,000-capacity R&D center in Mumbai.
💸 Expensive typo: Citigroup accidentally sent $81 trillion to a customer instead of $281.
🛑 Pull the plug: ANS Commerce, the startup Flipkart acquired in 2022, is shutting down. The platform helped brands set up and run online stores.
✈️ Sky’s the limit: India’s air passenger traffic jumped 11% YoY to 1.46 crore in January, up from 1.3 crore last year. IndiGo dominated the skies, carrying 95.2 lakh passengers
That’s a wrap! Don’t let the Monday blues get to you.
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